RE: BC Liberal Lead Narrows
From: Mustel Group Market Research
Date: May 10, 2005

The most recent Mustel Group poll (taken May 5-9) indicates that the BC Liberals have a five percentage point lead over the NDP, directionally lower than the eight point lead in April. If an election were held tomorrow, the BC Liberals would have the support of 45% of decided eligible voters, and the NDP the support of 40% of voters. The Green would attract 12%.

Geographically, the BC Liberals are leading in the north coast/interior region, and in the GVRD (outside the City of Vancouver). The NDP are leading on Vancouver Island (including Victoria). The two parties are in a statistical tie in the City of Vancouver and in the southern interior region ( Kamloops and south). Healthcare continues to be the predominant issue in all regions, but particularly in the southern interior.

Feb. '05
April '05
May '05
Voter Intentions
BC Liberal
46%
46%
45%
NDP
40%
38%
40%
Green Party
10%
10%
12%
Other
4%
6%
3%

The BC Liberals continue to attract a slightly larger proportion of men (50%) than women (40%), whereas the NDP are currently attracting a slightly higher proportion of women (46%) than men (35%). In the April poll, for the first time in many months, the NDP was not the favoured party among women. However, the traditional gender gap has been re-established.

 
Men
Women
Voter Intentions
 
April '05
May '05
April '05
May '05
BC Liberal
49%
50%
43%
40%
NDP
37%
35%
39%
46%
Green Party
10%
11%
11%
12%
Other
4%
4%
7%
2%

Approval ratings of Gordon Campbell’s performance as Premier are similar to earlier measures. While a significant proportion continues to have no impression of Carole James, this level has continued to decline (from 49% in February and 43% in April to 39% this month) with the approval and disapproval scores increasing almost equally.

 
Campbell
James
Approval Ratings
 
April '05
May '05
April '05
May '05
Approve
40%
39%
34%
36%
Disapprove
53%
52%
23%
26%
Undecided
7%
9%
43%
39%
 
Mustel Group is a Vancouver-based market research firm with a 25 year history and enviable record of accuracy for political polling. For our ‘Proven Record of Accuracy’ click here www.mustelgroup.com/accuracy.asp. For historical data, please click here (www.mustelgroup.com/political.asp)
Survey conducted: May 5-9, 2005
Methodology: Random sample of 603 BC adults, 18 years of age and over
Margin of error: ±4.0% at the 95% confidence level;
Undecided: 11%
Sponsored by: Mustel Group Market Research
Contact: Evi Mustel: 604-742-2240

402 - 1505 West Second Avenue Vancouver BC V6H 3Y4
general@mustelgroup.com www.mustelgroup.com
Tel 604.733.4213 Fax 604.733.5221

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